Next Express Entry Draw Predictions & CRS Cutoffs for October 2025

As Canada’s immigration landscape continues to evolve, October 2025 Express Entry remain the cornerstone of attracting skilled workers, graduates, and professionals worldwide. Every draw by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) not only reveals short-term priorities but also signals the federal government’s long-term immigration strategy.

The most recent Express Entry draw, held on September 29, 2025, made headlines with a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) cutoff of 855 CRS — the highest since 2018. This surge has fueled significant discussion and speculation about what October 2025 may bring for aspiring candidates.

Asif Consulting takes an in-depth look at recent CRS trends, pool composition, and expert forecasts to provide accurate, data-driven predictions for October’s draws.

CRS Cutoff Trends in 2025 (January – September)

To forecast October’s movement, it’s essential to review trends from the first nine months of 2025.

Key Takeaways:

• PNP draws have remained highly competitive, with cutoffs ranging from 700 to 855 CRS.

• Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws have fluctuated between 518–547 CRS, settling around the mid-520s.

• French-language draws have seen a significant rise — from 379 CRS in March to 446 CRS in September — reflecting IRCC’s focus on Francophone immigration.

• Healthcare and Education occupation-specific draws continue to hover between 470–510 CRS.

• The Trade Occupations draw introduced in September opened at 505 CRS, indicating competitiveness even within skilled trades.

CRS Pool Distribution (After September 29, 2025 Draw)

Understanding the CRS pool composition is vital for predicting upcoming trends. As of September 29, 2025, the Express Entry pool included 250,702 candidates.

Highlights:

• 70,583 candidates fall within the 451–500 range, forming the largest cluster.

• 24,528 candidates are in the 501–600 CRS range, pushing CEC cutoffs above 540 CRS.

• The 401–450 range now includes 74,481 candidates, continuing to swell as higher-scoring candidates dominate invitations.

These figures suggest no significant drop in cutoffs is expected in October.

Month-by-Month Overview: Express Entry 2025

A look back at monthly draw trends helps clarify IRCC’s shifting priorities.

Month	Key Highlights	Total Invitations
January	3 draws (1 PNP, 2 CEC). Highest CRS: 793 (PNP), Lowest: 527 (CEC).	5,821
February	Surge in French-language draws; 6,500 invited (428 CRS).	11,601
March	Record-breaking French draw (7,500 invitations, 379 CRS).	13,261
April	PNP-only month; CRS between 727–764.	1,246
May	4 draws (Education: 479 CRS, Healthcare: 510 CRS).	2,511
June	6 draws; CEC cutoffs steady (521–529 CRS).	7,405
July	CEC-focused; cutoffs between 518–521 CRS.	7,558
August	5 draws; French cutoff rose to 481 CRS.	6,417
September	7 draws, most diverse month; first Trade draw at 505 CRS, PNP at 855 CRS.	10,018

Analysis:

March and February were the most generous months, while April saw limited invitations. September marked a high point in activity and diversity, signaling IRCC’s strategic use of category-based draws to address labour shortages and Francophone targets.

Predictions for October 2025 Express Entry Draws

Based on IRCC’s draw cycle, CRS pool trends, and recent activity, Asif Consulting forecasts the following October 2025 draw schedule:

Draw Type	Probability	Predicted CRS	Expected Invitations	Likely Date
Canadian Experience Class (CEC)	85%	535+	2,000–3,000	Oct 2 (Wed)
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)	99%	750–860	200–300	Oct 13 (Mon)
French-Language Proficiency	60%	440–455	3,000–4,500	Oct 15–16
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)	99%	750–860	200–300	Oct 27 (Mon)
Healthcare Occupations	55%	470–485	1,500–2,500	Oct 28–29
Education Occupations	40%	460–470	1,000–2,000	Oct 29–30
Trade Occupations	35%	500–510	1,000–1,500	Late October

Key Insights:

• PNP draws will continue biweekly, with CRS remaining high (750–860).

• CEC cutoffs are expected to stay above 535 CRS due to a saturated pool.

• French draws remain competitive, stabilizing between 440–455 CRS.

• Healthcare draws will likely range 470–485 CRS, reflecting high demand.

• Education and Trade draws may reappear with smaller invitation volumes.

With multiple categories active, October offers diverse opportunities — though overall CRS cutoffs will remain elevated.

What Candidates Should Expect

IRCC’s 2025 strategy clearly focuses on category-based selections rather than all-program draws, targeting labour shortages and Francophone integration. While general draws remain unlikely, specialized streams offer multiple pathways for skilled candidates.

Applicants aiming for upcoming draws should:

• Update their profiles and ensure maximum CRS points (especially via language, education, and job offers).

• Stay informed about IRCC draw announcements.

• Explore PNP nominations for added CRS advantage.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

When is the next Express Entry draw in October 2025?
The next draw is anticipated on October 2, 2025, likely a CEC or PNP draw, followed by another around October 15–16, 2025.

Will CRS scores drop in October?
Unlikely. With over 70,000 candidates in the 451–500 range, cutoffs are expected to remain stable or rise slightly.

Which categories are most likely?
PNP, CEC, and French-language draws are the strongest contenders. Healthcare and education draws also have a fair chance.

Why are French draws becoming harder?
IRCC is emphasizing Francophone immigration, driving demand and pushing cutoffs from 379 (March) to 446 (September).

Will Trade Occupation draws continue?
Yes, though on a smaller scale. Another trade draw is expected by late October.

What CRS score is competitive now?

• CEC: 535+

• French: 450+

• Healthcare: 470+

How many candidates are currently in the pool?

As of September 29, 2025, there were 250,702 candidates, with the majority between 401–500 CRS.

Will general (all-program) draws return?
No indications yet. IRCC continues to prioritize category-based draws in 2025.

Can IRCC skip a draw?
Yes. Although biweekly draws are typical, IRCC may adjust or skip draws based on immigration targets and priorities.

Conclusion

With record-high CRS scores and diversified draw categories, October 2025 is shaping up to be another dynamic month in Canada’s immigration calendar. Candidates should remain proactive, stay informed, and ensure their profiles are optimized for every possible opportunity.

For personalized immigration guidance, Express Entry profile optimization, and PNP strategy, reach out to Asif Consulting — your trusted partner for Canadian immigration success.