The electrification of the Core Valley Lines is the Welsh government’s flagship project.

The Core Valley Lines into Cardiff is being electrified as part of the Welsh Government’s flagship Metro project.

Due to the pandemic, its completion date may be pushed back to 2024, and don’t be surprised if the £734m projected cost does not end up being higher.

However, it will significantly increase the speed, capacity, and frequency of services from the valleys to the capital and back. On the outskirts of the network, from Merthyr, Treherbert, and Aberdare, it will provide four tram trains per hour in and out of Cardiff, up from one or two currently.

The Core Valley Lines into Cardiff are now being electrified as part of the Welsh Government’s flagship Railway station.

Due to the pandemic, its completion date may be pushed back to 2024, and don’t be surprised if the £734m projected cost does not end in a larger amount.

However, it will significantly improve the speed, capacity, and frequency of services from the valleys to the capital and back. On the outskirts of the computer system, from Merthyr, Treherbert, and Aberdare, it will provide four tram-trains per hour in and out of Cardiff, up from a maximum of two currently.

If the Welsh Government wants to maximize the benefits of the Metro, and yes, working patterns have changed as a result of the pandemic, with a permanent hybrid working model taking root, then at the very least both lines require four services per hour.

The Metro’s tram-trains will have to meet heavy rail specifications. This means they won’t be able to run as close together – with what’s known as block separation – as if the Metro had been converted from a heavy to a light rail network.

This was a solution proposed by Hong Kong-based transport group MTR, which lost the contract in the final stages to Keolis Amey. With maybe some investment, such as double tracking, its tram solution would have seen at least four services per hour on the Coryton Line. The City Line, which will not be devolved between Cardiff West Junction, would have also necessitated investment from the Department of Transport (DfT) for Network Rail to carry out the necessary investment for at least four tram trains an hour

These two interventions are still possible and would increase overall network capacity by addressing bottleneck issues into Cardiff Central from the west and on the Coryton Line.

The cost would most presumably be in the tens of millions of pounds, but with more capacity serving the much more densely populated areas on the Metro, this could be offset by increased ticketing revenue.

The work could be completed in tandem with the rest of the Metro electrification project over the next two years, assuming that the UK Government agrees to financially support the City Line investment.

However, where would the rolling stock come from to take advantage of the increased network capacity on the Coryton and City Lines?

Well, there is a solution to provide more services in Cardiff – and it should be noted that the majority of Metro’s spending and economic impact will be felt north of the capital. That would be cost-neutral and have an immediate impact, subject to necessary network enhancements.

Transport for Wales, the Welsh Government’s transport agency, could simply change the frequency of services scheduled into and out of Pontypridd. The current timetable will see four tram trains per hour from Treherbert, Aberdare, and Merthyr into Pontypridd, where services will merge, delivering 12 trains per hour to Cardiff and the same amount in the opposite direction the other direction from Cardiff. That’s one every five minutes south of Pontypridd.

With the higher volume of total trips and thus the opportunity for a significant mode shift from the car in Cardiff, Transport for Wales could reduce the frequency to eight tram-trains per hour in both directions between Pontypridd and the capital.

That is still a significantly improved service and falls well short of the ‘turn-up-and-go’ threshold of one every seven minutes. The Heads of the Valleys can still maintain four trains per hour by diverting some services through Pontypridd, such as two trains per hour from Treherbert to Aberdare via Pontypridd.

This would allow Transport for Wales to reallocate tram-train stock in order to increase service frequency on the City and Coryton Lines by 100% to four trains every hour.

With the higher volume of total trips and thus the opportunity for a significant mode shift from the car in Cardiff, Transport for Wales could reduce the frequency to eight tram trains per hour in both directions between Pontypridd and the capital.

That is still a significantly improved service and falls well short of the ‘turn-up-and-go’ threshold of one every seven minutes. The Heads of the Valleys can still maintain four trains per hour by diverting some services through Pontypridd, such as two trains per hour from Treherbert to Aberdare via Pontypridd.

This would allow Transport for Wales to reallocate tram-train stock in order to increase service frequency on the City and Coryton Lines by 100% to four trains every hour.

With the Wales & Borders now directly under Transport for Wales’ control – after enacting the operator of the last resort mechanism last year after the pandemic and the resulting drop in passengers rendered the KeolisAmey business franchise financially unviable – it will never be in a better position to effect such a change without the need for complex negotiations with a franchise holding rail operating company.

The only issue could be the £164 million in funding that the European Union has committed to Metro. However, with the overall number of services unaffected, the Welsh Government could demonstrate that such a reconfiguration would result in a greater reduction in carbon emissions while also improving the utilization of the planned tram-train fleet.

In addition to supporting Network Rail’s emerging and ambitious decarbonization plans, the DfT should consider supporting the wider Metro by electrifying the Vale of Glamorgan Line to Penarth and Barry, as well as the South Wales Mainline to Swansea.

Electrifying the Vale of Glamorgan to Penarth would allow Transport for Wales to operate tram-trains rather than triodes, potentially allowing an extension to lower Penarth.

In terms of the high-speed rail (HS2) project, the UK government is refusing to decouple Wales from England.
Despite the cancellation of the eastern leg of HS2, the DfT has a nearly £100 billion spending commitment for the integrated rail plan, which is primarily made up of the London, Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 and some of the original Northern Powerhouse Rail agenda.

However, unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland, Wales will not receive a healthy Barnett consequential of around £5 billion, but rather £1.7 billion. This is based on the current Barnett comparability factor of 36% from the Department for Transport. It used to be more than 90%, but that has dropped significantly as a result of HS2, which, like all Network Rail enhancements, is defined as an England and Wales project.

Despite having around 10% of the UK rail network, Wales currently has only £345 million allocated for rail enhancement projects in the coming years, aside from the necessary operating maintenance and renewal costs (as defined by the Wales Route, which includes sections in England like the Severn Tunnel and Marches Line).

While the UK Government has rejected calls for all rail infrastructure in Wales to be devolved, the Core Valley Lines into Cardiff will be after an asset transfer agreement in 2020. The agreement enabled the Welsh Government to carry out Metro work. This is being managed by a KeolisAmey infrastructure business, with Amey in charge.

Passengers using the Metro, including the Coryton and City Lines, will account for a significant share of rail passengers in Wales beginning in 2024.

Because the Core Valley Lines rail asset has now been devolved to Cardiff Bay, the Department for Transport – and yes, all funding decisions are made by the Treasury – should at least acknowledge this partial devolution, based on a passenger use calculation estimated at around 40% of total capacity the total Welsh figure.

This would raise the DfT’s Barnett attribution factor for Wales to around 70%, up from 36% currently. This would generate an additional £1.7 billion for the Welsh Government.

It would be up to the Welsh Government to decide where such an increased Barnett consequential should be spent, but it could be used to support much-needed rail improvements in other parts of Wales, such as the emerging metro projects for Swansea Bay and North Wales, as well as further enhancements to the Core Valley Lines and schemes such as Cardiff Crossrail.
Yes, many of these projects are not devolved and should be funded entirely by the UK Government, but in order to get things done, the Welsh Government may have to reach a funding compromise.
The Treasury is unlikely to consider a high-speed “Metro consequential” project until 2024.